The graph below shows actual daily confirmed cases in Florida since the beginning of the pandemic through October 3, 2020.

The graph above represents the situation in early May, a day or so before Phase 1 relaxing restrictions was implemented. It shows that before the easing of restrictions, there was a negative growth rate following the first peak. If the restrictions could have been maintained for a few more weeks, that negative growth rate would have resulted in near-zero daily cases by early June. 

The above graph shows daily confirmed cases since the outbreak of coronavirus through October 3, 2020.  It shows that instead of waiting a few weeks for the daily cases to return to near-zero levels, restrictions were relaxed while the infection rate was still high. 

Following relaxation of restrictions, daily new cases were no longer trending downward as shown in the previous graph. Instead, they started trending upward exponentially. 

The Governor relaxed restrictions starting on May 4, while Florida was still at relatively high infection rates. Those actions, in part, contributed to new all-time peaks which will prolong the amount of time needed to return to near zero infections. Further, both public gatherings of vacationers, as well as demonstrations by protestors, show many instances of inadequate social distancing in large crowds. Finally, many members of the public, particularly younger Floridians, have viewed this easing of restrictions as a signal to dispense with adequate social distancing. The combination of these actions culminated in a resumption of an alarming exponential positive growth rate in July.

After reaching an all-time record of over 15,000 cases in July, the number of cases trended lower during August. If this steep decline were indicative of a real decrease in infection rate, then this continuing trend would put Florida at near-zero infections by about now. (Refer to the yellow dotted line in the previous graph.)

However, as mentioned earlier, the cases remain high at about twice the first peak. In fact, during the last two weeks they have been trending slightly upward.  

The above chart shows daily tests to date since the outbreak of coronavirus through October 3, 2020. As can be seen, despite having made excellent progress in initially ramping up testing through the middle of July, since then, there has been a significant downward trend in testing. Even at these relatively low rates, testing continues to trend downward. Therefore, most of the decline in daily cases shown in earlier graph was caused by a significant reduction in testing and was not due to a substantial drop in infection rates.

To figure out whether changes in daily confirmed cases are due to changes in infections, or merely due to fluctuations in testing, we measure the daily infection rate. (Refer to the graph directly above.) The infection rate is also referred to as Positivity Rate. The Positivity rate is the percent of tests that come back positive. Because the Positivity rate is a percentage of tests, it is an accurate indicator of the level of infection that is independent of the number of tests conducted.

The graph shows that the infection rate peaked at 21% in mid-August, but then declined during August. Following that the rate leveled off and averaged about 11% for September.

The World Health Organization has an extensive list of public health criteria to consider before reopening a community. Among them is a positivity rate of less than 5 percent in the previous two weeks. The Florida Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics (FCAAP) also recommends following this positivity guideline.

The last four days of July recorded successive records of daily deaths.  That was followed by an all-time record of 277 deaths on August 8, 2020.  Since then there was a downward trend in deaths during August. In September new death leveled off and averaged about 100 daily deaths. The trend in death rate is an accurate measure to determine whether we are controlling the virus because it is independent from fluctuations in the testing rate.  However, it is a lagging indicator and generally spikes in deaths follow spikes in cases by two to three weeks.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Model for Florida

The IHME model makes multiple projections based on three different scenarios.

Current projection (What the modelers think will most likely happen)

They assume that the trend of easing mandates will continue at its current trajectory. 

Mandates easing (Worst case scenario)

This scenario assumes that the current pattern of easing social distancing mandates continues, and new mandates are not imposed.

Universal masks 

This scenario calculates what would happen if 95% of the population always wore a mask when they were in public. 

The Mandates easing worst-case scenario, assumes that, regardless of the death rate, there will be a continuation of restriction easing, such as returning to in-class schooling. It is currently projecting that the daily death rate will rise to 675 by December 31, 2020 under this scenario.  

Current projection scenario is forecasting the same values as the Mandates easing scenario until November, 2020, with about 140 average daily deaths on that date. It then predicts that Florida will hit the model’s threshold of 8 deaths per million and assumes all restrictions will be reimposed. After the reimposition of these restrictions it projects 89 daily deaths by December 31, 2020.

The Universal masks scenario assumes a statewide mask mandate. This scenario projects a 137 daily deaths by December 31, 2020. 

Below is the current IHME model displaying actual and projected deaths per day.  

Source:

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). COVID-19 Projections. Seattle, WA: IHME, University of Washington, 2020. Available from https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (Accessed October 7, 2020). Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, Institute Director.